Goodbye to the Old, In with the New

Although the season hasn't ended for two teams, the majority of the MLB has left the building and gone on sabbatical for the next few months. While they get ready for their winter hibernation, some big questions are being raised. For one team, the Reds, the questions are only piling up now that they have selected a replacement for Dusty Baker.

However, before discussing the future, I'd like to review Baker's time in Cincinnati and how he really turned this team around in his tenure with the club. For the first two seasons, Cincinnati was a bottom feeder in the NL Central finishing 74-88 in 2008 and only four wins better in 2009. However, Baker led the team to a breakout year in 2010 when they obtained the Central crown and their first postseason berth since 1995- they finished 91-71 in '10. The Reds fell to an underwhelming 79-83 in '11 before rocketing to the top tier last year and grabbing their second division crown in three years behind a 97-65 record. This season the Reds battled behind two of the league's top teams for much of the year before seemingly falling apart in late September to fall in their last seven straight games including their Wild Card game in Pittsburgh.
Dusty did something no other manager had done for 15 years when he brought this team to the postseason in 2010. He made multiple high-profile trades that paid off namely the trades for Mat Latos and for Shin Soo Choo in consecutive years. He brought up and molded the backbone of the Reds newest generation of position players including Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco, Zack Cozart and Chris Heisey. Baker, for better or worse, also had a hand in the rise of Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake and the Cuban Missile Aroldis Chapman.
Don't get me wrong, I'm no Dusty Baker fanatic but I also really got into the team during his six year management and he's the manager I will most likely look back on as the one who shaped the team I "grew up" with. He made many questionable decisions throughout the seasons and then really flustered in the postseason-- putting Cueto in when he didn't even have half of a season under his belt this year?-- and many fans will never forgive him for those. However, he did turn this team around and has brought it back to prominence in the national arena and I thank him for that.
Enjoy retirement Dusty and know that some of the fans appreciate your efforts over the years in Cincinnati.

Now, onto the questions that surround this franchise in the off season.

Who will replace Dusty Baker? 
This one's already got an answer: Bryan Price. He's a well known and respected pitching coach now turned manager. Although not even a handful of the managers in the big leagues come from coaching the mound, one of the World Series managers, John Farrell, came that route and seems to be doing pretty well for himself and Boston. Even more important, the front office kept a familiar face for the younger crop of Reds. Bruce, Frazier, Mesoraco, Cozart, Heisey, Neftali Soto, Billy Hamilton and Derrick Robinson have only known Baker but they also know and respect Price. Price has also helped shape one of the best rotations in baseball and knows all about the Cuban Missile and how best to use him to close out games. Will Price jump right into management without any hitches? No, that's a tall order for any rookie manager to fill. Should Redsnation be worried because of that? Not at all, Price knows what he is doing and knows this roster better than almost anyone in the clubhouse so if Spring Training, and maybe even April, is a little shaky on his end, don't write off the season.

Okay, Price is promoted, who takes his place?
The biggest managerial question left, right now, is who will take over Price's old job of pitching coach for the Reds. Although not set in stone, Mack Jenkins, who assisted Price the last two seasons and has been with the organization for 24 years, is a front runner to take up where Price left off. However, Jenkins may be moved to the bullpen and a new coach will take over in the dugout. As Price said, "It is going to be a different voice. That’s fine... I think sometimes when they hear the same voice over and over again, a new voice will help." So this question still has time to be answered but for now: at least one new voice will be added and Jenkins will be a key man for the organization going forward whether in the pen or dugout.

Farewell to Choo?
Shin Soo Choo is a free agent. Not much that the Reds could do about that. Now it's all up to Choo where he will go. He got a very nice view of over half of the league this season and, with the way his OBP was this year, he could punch his meal ticket to almost any team he wanted. Of course, the Reds should be waving a thick stack of cash in his face to get him to stay because their options aren't exactly exciting to replace their lead off centerfielder. But Choo might leave, so that leads to another question: Who replaces Choo at leadoff and in center?
If the Reds don't want to deal and decide to stay in their farm system, which is a very viable option, there are two rookies that could take up the mantle. Robinson, a left fielder in 77% of his major league career, has some experience in center. His bat could use a slight pick-me-up after finishing .255/.322/.323 with a BB/K of .41. The other option and only true centerfielder that has major league experience is the speedster Billy Hamilton. This guy could pickle the Beast without changing his shoes. However, his bat is still minor league level and needs to develop before he will be a viable option for the Reds to start consistently. Other options could include Heisey who has yet to be given his season long position in the outfield and Felix Perez a minor leaguer who has a similar line to Robinson but is a solid centerfielder.

Phillips: Cincinnati Icon or Cincinnati Commodity?
After raising dust about his contract earlier this season, Phillips may be headed out of Cincinnati. However, the only way this will happen is if someone can sweeten the pot for the Reds. The most likely situation would be a trade between the Reds and the Braves for second baseman- Uggla for Phillips. Of course, looking at Uggla's decline over the past two seasons- .220 average in 2012 and .179 in '13- there isn't much sense for the Reds to take that deal. Yes Phillips has controversy written all over him, but that's who he is, that's the way this guy plays ball. If the front office can't deal with some unseemly comments from their star second baseman, they may want to look at his numbers and his finalist position for a Gold Glove.

Is ERA the money measuring stick for Castellini?
If the Reds front office hasn't caught wind of the Tim Lincecum deal, which you best believe they have, they might want to be thinking about one Homer Bailey and his contract or else his agent might just be sniffing around the league for a better deal. Lincecum, if you didn't know, signed a two year $35 million contract on Tuesday with the Giants. Lincecum also, to put it lightly, sucked this year. Or did he? Going by standard baseball lines for pitchers, Lincecum had a below average year posting a 4.37 ERA over a 10-14 season. However, Lincecum was a well above average pitcher when you look at more obscure stats- FIP, xFIP and SIERA- which is most likely what the Giants did. For a complete description of these stats read this article, for a short overview: FIP and xFIP are used to predict what a pitcher will do in the future, SIERA does the same thing but even better.
Now, enough about Lincecum on to Bailey. Bailey's been pitching much better and much more consistent over the past four years, his ERA has dropped (4.46 in '10 to 3.49 in '13), his strikeouts have almost doubled (100 in 2010 to 199 in 2013) and his WHIP has dropped to 1.12. All of these numbers are better than Lincecum's last two seasons, but that's before we even get to FIP, xFIP and SIERA to judge Bailey. Bailey, according to his numbers, is a good pitcher. However, when put up against the advanced metrics similar to Moneyball, Bailey is a top of the line right hander. He's 23rd or better in each of the advanced metrics among all of baseball's pitchers. (Lincecum isn't in the top 30 in any of them)
So, does this mean Castellini will be bargaining a deal to keep Bailey here based on advanced metrics or is his ERA and win/loss column still the stick for Castellini? Either way, Bailey is an essential part of the Reds pitching rotation and will come in handy if the Reds want to make a push under their new management.

Live Blogging Game 2 Boston v St. Louis 7:07 pm

Rookie Wacha v Veteran Lackey. Will Beltran be able to take another right field fence hit? Can the Cardinal bats come to life? Can Ortiz and Co. bash the no-hitter out of Wacha? First pitch in just over an hour.

Will the Cardinals be able to top their Fail of a Lifetime between Wainwright and Molina? In case you missed it, scroll to the bottom of this article.

The entire game resides on the arm of Wacha, will he go Wild Boy on the Sox or will No Hands show up and let the Sox power through another Fenway game?

Noticeablly absent from the Cardinal lineup: Pete Kozma, aka Error Boy.

Beltran rips one to left and Gomes can't handle it for a single.

Nasty fastball takes Holliday out. He's now 0-8 against Lackey. (He played for the A's in 2009 before being traded to the Cards)

One hit, no damage done. Cards take the field after one half inning.

One up, one down for clear-headed Wacha.

DeMuth is down at first base... will he be blowing another call at his new post?

That was a freaky good change-up to strike out Victorino.

2 K's... Red Sox might want to spread the word: Wacha is no Waino.

Gotta salute the Troops whenever possible. Thanks for the service and enjoy the game!

Molina drops a blooper over Pedroia into right field for a hit.

Breaking ball and Freese goes down for the second K of the night.

Leadoff hit and nothing to show for it. 0-0 after 1 and a half innings.

Although he's not starting tonight, Middlebrooks might be called upon to hit against his old high school rival, Wacha, tonight.

One out walk for Napoli. Wacha has yet to allow a No. 3, 4, or 5 hitter to get a hit through this postseason.

A ten pitch at bat ends in a popup, good battle between Gomes and Wacha in their first meeting.

Pretty sure I felt that breeze from Salty's first swing..

Jay gets the last two outs for the Cards. Zeros after 2.

3 K's for Lackey. Descalso just misread that pitch.

Great pitch to paint that inside corner.

When Lackey gets to that 2-2 count he strikes em out almost 50% of the time. No wonder Carpenter gets chalked up as #4.

Wow. 3 pitch shutdown of Drew. Wacha looks tough again tonight.

4 K's, Wacha is going hard right now.

First hit of the night for the Sox comes from Ellsbury's broken bat single into shallow center.

Wacha and Lackey are dealing through 3 full. Both have 4 K's and are only separated by 10 pitches, 53 and 43 respectively.

Leadoff triple by Holliday. Can the Cards move him home?

WHAT!? That was a miracle catch by Pedroia.

1-0 Cards on Molina sacrifice over the mound.

Boston is 7-0 when Gomes starts. Cards are 6-0 when they touch home first. Gomes is starting and the Cards just touched home... Something has to give.

Green Monster guides Pedroia to a leadoff double. Good play by Holliday though, making sure the ball is in front of him.

First two Sox reach this inning. One on a double and another on a walk to Papi.

Double play moves Pedroia to third and brings up Gomes.

No damage done after the initial two on no out. Wacha is still dealing exceptionally well. 1-0 through 4.

Ellsbury's speed might not have helped on the basepaths so far, but it sure was essential on that catch.

Drew is his own highlight reel. (Kozma, take a few lessons on handling a ball)

Leadoff walk for Salty. Will walks haunt this time?

That was nasty power right there. K #5

Wacha gets out of the fifth. Dealing as usual. The Sox need a little of that power from last night.

That's 5 for each pitcher. Pitcher's duel anyone?

Wacha coming back out. 88 pitches with 3 walks and 5 K's, no runs.

That's 4... At some point the Sox will need to take advantage of those walks.

98 pitches and Maness is up and getting warm in the pen.

Papi goes yard again! 2-1 over the Green Monster!

With his shutout and possible win/ no-decision gone, Wacha strikes out Napoli. #6 on the night.

One pitch is all it takes to lose a game...

6 for Lackey.

Walk number 2 for Lackey. Brings up Jay.

Two on, one out. Lackey comes out after 95 pitches.

Kozma in, I guess defense is less important than runs at this point.

Double steal makes the double play a non-option.

Bases loaded for Carpenter, one out. Things are getting interesting now.

3-2. Bad defense seems to be the way that these games will be decided.

4-2. Errors will really screw any team in the postseason.

A very tough inning for the Sox is over.

Craig doesn't seem to have lost much of a step since his injury.

Errors will haunt?

Big Papi represents the tying run. Martinez sticks in there...

Base hit, two on, go ahead run coming to the plate in the Beard of Napoli.

Matheny is rewarded for his dedication. No damage done and only 3 outs left for the Sox to tie it up.

Last 3 tries...

Strike out the side and end the game. Rosenthal does a great job to close it out. 4-2 Game 2 win for the Cards.

Live Blogging the Boston v St. Louis World Series Game 1

So Pete Kozma can breathe a little easier when Waino and Molina decide to watch a pop fly drop in between them.

Kozma may need a little more time on the bench to be ready for this big stage. Two errors in 2 innings...

If Waino doesn't get this under control, Matheny may want to pull him and get the bullpen hot.

4-0 in 2? Let's get Beard!

If Waino wants to hang a changeup for Big Papi, I'm sure Papi would be happy to deliver to those "Papi!" chants.

One defensive position player is still awake for the Cards, but Papi still drives in one. 5-0 with 2 outs

5-0 after just 60 pitches. Oh, but that's just through 6 outs...

In his 32nd start this year, Lester is handed a 5 run cushion through 2 innings. Pretty decent way to get your rookie starter a confidence boost.

Beltran's out for catching that Papi home run. Fenway can be a brutal teacher...

First three up three down of the night for Waino.

In case anyone didn't know: 21 of the last 25 World Series have been won by the winner of Game 1.

Well the Cards just got a leadoff walk by Jay.

Bases loaded, Lester's time to get a couple K's

Or a 1-2-3 double play works well too. Fielding your position is pretty key to winning games in cold weather.

"Our job is to get it right" at least the Umps got it right in the end of that questionable first inning call.

Back to back K's for Waino, I think he might have figured out the whole pitching thing here in Game One.

What a catch! Gomes didn't do that often in Cincinnati but the Green Monster really lets him play with more leeway.

Carpenter pushes Robinson to third and reaches second with a blooper into left and an error by Gomes.

Lester buckles down on the 2-2 count allowing only a .185 average through the season through 135 at bats.

Good catch by Robinson, hope that wall didn't come out and hit him too hard.

92 pitches and Maness is up and throwing for the Cards.

95 pitches through 5 innings compared to 78 pitches. That's the Ace and the 8 year vet respectively...

A brutal teacher indeed, Beltran is at the hospital getting his right side checked out. Hopefully nothing too serious and we'll see the power hitter tomorrow.

6 K's on 91 pitches. Those K's include Beltran, Molina, Freese Carpenter, Holliday and Craig. Good stuff by Jon Lester.

Axford strikes out the first bat he sees. First two...

Three straight K's, that's a good change of pace for the Cardinals.

Lester stays in and delivers K #7.

Eight.

Choate is the third pitcher to face these Sox tonight. Maness is #4.

Sox haven't scored since the 2nd inning.

Adams just got Michael Jordan-esque Air right there!

BIIIIIG PAPIIIII!!!!!! At least Torii Hunter didn't have to try and catch that one...

7-0 after seven innings of Game 1.

Surprised to see Lester out there with over 100 pitches, but if you don't have to go to the pen, don't. Especially in the Series.

The Cards are running out of outs if they want to make a dent in this lead...

112 pitches, 8 K's, 1 walk and 0 runs over 7 2/3 innings. Great showing by Lester.

One batter, one strike out, Tazawa catches Jay on a called third strike.

Does chewing on your glove help you pitch better? Ask Martinez after this inning...

Doubles seem to be a given off that Green Monster, especially when they get lost in that left field corner.

Wild pitch moves Nava over to third with no outs.

And Nava jogs in off Xander's sac linedrive. 8-0.

Maybe tomorrow will be the true test of pitchers when Lackey and Wacha meet up...

Dempster coming on and delivering on the first pitch.

Holliday breaks up the shutout with a deep shot over the Monster in Left Center.

Close play at first. Victorino with a nice throw to try to get Carpenter.

Dempster lets up a blast but sends Adams down swinging to end the game. 8-1.

Red Sox win and Lester shone in 7 2/3 innings.

The Right Illusion Can Trick Any Mind

As the October Classic heats up and St. Louis moves into fall and Halloween is right around the corner, it only makes sense to take a look at one of the best parts of the game: superstition.

In baseball, superstitions take on a wide variety of forms: curses, batting rituals, random jumping and tons of eating. To get our feet warm, let’s delve into two of the most notable curses to ever come about.

First, we have the Curse of the Great Bambino. This started in 1918 when the Boston Red Sox decided to trade Babe Ruth, the Great Bambino, to, of all teams, the New York Yankees. The curse did not allow the Red Sox to win a World Series for 86 years but was broken when the Sox won the crown in 2004 in a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals. The Red Sox seem primed to get back on that track this year after a fantastic season. (And those beards!!! Superstition at it's finest!)

Possibly the curse known best to the NL Central and specifically Cubs fans is the Billy Goat Curse. The curse started in 1945 when Billy Sianis was kicked out of Wrigley Field during the World Series because his pet goat’s smell was bothering other fans. Sianis proceeded to curse the Cubs by saying, “Them Cubs, they ain’t gonna win no more.” Sure enough, the Cubs haven’t won a National League Pennant since that day and haven’t won a World Series in 105 years. This curse seems to have a few more years in its tank.

Now that we can all accept the realness of curses and black magic, it’s time to dive into the game itself and some rules that are only written on our hearts.

The first rule of Fight Club and of an ongoing perfect or no-hitter game is the same: Don’t talk about it. Just don’t. It is a well-known fact that talking about any such instance will break the magic of that game. In my lifetime it’s happened much too often for me to be able to recall. When I tuned into the September 6 San Francisco Giants v Arizona Diamondbacks game one of my friends, who will remain anonymous for his safety, slipped and pointed out the pitching performance by Petit. Sure enough, one out away from perfection, Petit gave up a single. Perfect game and no-hitter bid gone just like that. It also happened to the rookie here in St. Louis, Michael Wacha, when he lost his bid for a no-hitter thanks to an ESPN analyst’s decision to comment on the performance.

The other unwritten rule that must be respected to avoid disaster is that you must never step on the foul line when entering the field. Don’t do it. Bad things have happened to good people. Turk Wendell, pitcher for the Mets, Cubs and Phillies, would take this to an extreme and jump over the dirt and foul line for good measure. I don’t know what it is with Mets pitchers and jumping, but Oliver Perez would also emphatically jump over the foul line each time he headed for the dugout.

Eating has and will always be a ritual for some people, for others, it’s not only a ritual but a way of life. Matt Garza, pitcher for the Cubs, eats Popeye’s chicken every day that he is scheduled to start. Wade Boggs, third baseman for the Red Sox, ate chicken before every game so much so that he earned the nickname “Chicken Man” for his ritual.

Slumps may be the worst part of any athlete’s career. Jason Giambi, a pitcher’s nightmare, was no stranger to slumps even during his prime. How did Giambi climb out of these slumps? A golden thong. You read that right, a golden thong helped Giambi end slump after slump. The thong worked so well that other Rockies decided to borrow the thong to get out of their own slumps.

Everyone knows that numbers are important to players, but sometimes players take that to the extreme. And when I say extreme, I mean penny pushing extreme. Turk Wendell asked the New York Mets to make his salary $9,999,999.99 in recognition of his number, 99, when he played in 2000.

Although players have their own superstitions, fans get extremely crazy on their own. The line between tradition and superstition is often blurred and then crossed by fans. Is the Chop some sort of black magic for the Braves? Clearly it didn’t work all that well in the NLDS… Lucky peanuts anyone? Keep one peanut for that 8th inning rally and then start chewing at that first pitch. Missing the first pitch is a cardinal sin for veteran baseball fans and when you do miss it, you might want to have a very good reason for the baseball gods.

We all know, in our hearts that sitting in a certain spot, waving a rally towel, putting on the rally cap or turning our back will make our team perform better. It’s been proven time and time again. (Forget about the few times it didn’t work) Although science, society and even our own mind calls us crazy for thinking that our little effort does anything to change the course of the game, sports fans know that it does work. Each sport provides their own flair to this superstitious way of life, but baseball does it better and more enthusiastically than most. 

*Note: This article has been published in the Saint Louis University News. This is an original copy by the author (Nate Creech). Any reproduction of this material without written consent is prohibited.