Although the season hasn't ended for two teams, the majority of the MLB has left the building and gone on sabbatical for the next few months. While they get ready for their winter hibernation, some big questions are being raised. For one team, the Reds, the questions are only piling up now that they have selected a replacement for Dusty Baker.
However, before discussing the future, I'd like to review Baker's time in Cincinnati and how he really turned this team around in his tenure with the club. For the first two seasons, Cincinnati was a bottom feeder in the NL Central finishing 74-88 in 2008 and only four wins better in 2009. However, Baker led the team to a breakout year in 2010 when they obtained the Central crown and their first postseason berth since 1995- they finished 91-71 in '10. The Reds fell to an underwhelming 79-83 in '11 before rocketing to the top tier last year and grabbing their second division crown in three years behind a 97-65 record. This season the Reds battled behind two of the league's top teams for much of the year before seemingly falling apart in late September to fall in their last seven straight games including their Wild Card game in Pittsburgh.
Dusty did something no other manager had done for 15 years when he brought this team to the postseason in 2010. He made multiple high-profile trades that paid off namely the trades for Mat Latos and for Shin Soo Choo in consecutive years. He brought up and molded the backbone of the Reds newest generation of position players including Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco, Zack Cozart and Chris Heisey. Baker, for better or worse, also had a hand in the rise of Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake and the Cuban Missile Aroldis Chapman.
Don't get me wrong, I'm no Dusty Baker fanatic but I also really got into the team during his six year management and he's the manager I will most likely look back on as the one who shaped the team I "grew up" with. He made many questionable decisions throughout the seasons and then really flustered in the postseason-- putting Cueto in when he didn't even have half of a season under his belt this year?-- and many fans will never forgive him for those. However, he did turn this team around and has brought it back to prominence in the national arena and I thank him for that.
Enjoy retirement Dusty and know that some of the fans appreciate your efforts over the years in Cincinnati.
Now, onto the questions that surround this franchise in the off season.
Who will replace Dusty Baker?
This one's already got an answer: Bryan Price. He's a well known and respected pitching coach now turned manager. Although not even a handful of the managers in the big leagues come from coaching the mound, one of the World Series managers, John Farrell, came that route and seems to be doing pretty well for himself and Boston. Even more important, the front office kept a familiar face for the younger crop of Reds. Bruce, Frazier, Mesoraco, Cozart, Heisey, Neftali Soto, Billy Hamilton and Derrick Robinson have only known Baker but they also know and respect Price. Price has also helped shape one of the best rotations in baseball and knows all about the Cuban Missile and how best to use him to close out games. Will Price jump right into management without any hitches? No, that's a tall order for any rookie manager to fill. Should Redsnation be worried because of that? Not at all, Price knows what he is doing and knows this roster better than almost anyone in the clubhouse so if Spring Training, and maybe even April, is a little shaky on his end, don't write off the season.
Okay, Price is promoted, who takes his place?
The biggest managerial question left, right now, is who will take over Price's old job of pitching coach for the Reds. Although not set in stone, Mack Jenkins, who assisted Price the last two seasons and has been with the organization for 24 years, is a front runner to take up where Price left off. However, Jenkins may be moved to the bullpen and a new coach will take over in the dugout. As Price said, "It is going to be a different voice. That’s fine... I think sometimes when they hear the same voice over and over again, a new voice will help." So this question still has time to be answered but for now: at least one new voice will be added and Jenkins will be a key man for the organization going forward whether in the pen or dugout.
Farewell to Choo?
Shin Soo Choo is a free agent. Not much that the Reds could do about that. Now it's all up to Choo where he will go. He got a very nice view of over half of the league this season and, with the way his OBP was this year, he could punch his meal ticket to almost any team he wanted. Of course, the Reds should be waving a thick stack of cash in his face to get him to stay because their options aren't exactly exciting to replace their lead off centerfielder. But Choo might leave, so that leads to another question: Who replaces Choo at leadoff and in center?
If the Reds don't want to deal and decide to stay in their farm system, which is a very viable option, there are two rookies that could take up the mantle. Robinson, a left fielder in 77% of his major league career, has some experience in center. His bat could use a slight pick-me-up after finishing .255/.322/.323 with a BB/K of .41. The other option and only true centerfielder that has major league experience is the speedster Billy Hamilton. This guy could pickle the Beast without changing his shoes. However, his bat is still minor league level and needs to develop before he will be a viable option for the Reds to start consistently. Other options could include Heisey who has yet to be given his season long position in the outfield and Felix Perez a minor leaguer who has a similar line to Robinson but is a solid centerfielder.
Phillips: Cincinnati Icon or Cincinnati Commodity?
After raising dust about his contract earlier this season, Phillips may be headed out of Cincinnati. However, the only way this will happen is if someone can sweeten the pot for the Reds. The most likely situation would be a trade between the Reds and the Braves for second baseman- Uggla for Phillips. Of course, looking at Uggla's decline over the past two seasons- .220 average in 2012 and .179 in '13- there isn't much sense for the Reds to take that deal. Yes Phillips has controversy written all over him, but that's who he is, that's the way this guy plays ball. If the front office can't deal with some unseemly comments from their star second baseman, they may want to look at his numbers and his finalist position for a Gold Glove.
Is ERA the money measuring stick for Castellini?
If the Reds front office hasn't caught wind of the Tim Lincecum deal, which you best believe they have, they might want to be thinking about one Homer Bailey and his contract or else his agent might just be sniffing around the league for a better deal. Lincecum, if you didn't know, signed a two year $35 million contract on Tuesday with the Giants. Lincecum also, to put it lightly, sucked this year. Or did he? Going by standard baseball lines for pitchers, Lincecum had a below average year posting a 4.37 ERA over a 10-14 season. However, Lincecum was a well above average pitcher when you look at more obscure stats- FIP, xFIP and SIERA- which is most likely what the Giants did. For a complete description of these stats read this article, for a short overview: FIP and xFIP are used to predict what a pitcher will do in the future, SIERA does the same thing but even better.
Now, enough about Lincecum on to Bailey. Bailey's been pitching much better and much more consistent over the past four years, his ERA has dropped (4.46 in '10 to 3.49 in '13), his strikeouts have almost doubled (100 in 2010 to 199 in 2013) and his WHIP has dropped to 1.12. All of these numbers are better than Lincecum's last two seasons, but that's before we even get to FIP, xFIP and SIERA to judge Bailey. Bailey, according to his numbers, is a good pitcher. However, when put up against the advanced metrics similar to Moneyball, Bailey is a top of the line right hander. He's 23rd or better in each of the advanced metrics among all of baseball's pitchers. (Lincecum isn't in the top 30 in any of them)
So, does this mean Castellini will be bargaining a deal to keep Bailey here based on advanced metrics or is his ERA and win/loss column still the stick for Castellini? Either way, Bailey is an essential part of the Reds pitching rotation and will come in handy if the Reds want to make a push under their new management.
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