This week, the 4-Point Play will look at several teams that aren't even close to winning their conference due to the domination of other conference foes. Key games ahead will decide the fate of these programs with each having amazing potential to be a dark horse in their respective conferences and give us multiple wins in conference championships and March Madness.
Connecticut Huskies
The Huskies have been an on the bubble team all year when it comes to the AP Top 25. They've had huge success against the likes of Maryland, Indiana, and Florida but then they've also had some really tough losses to Stanford, Houston, and Southern Methodist. UConn showed their real ability when they went into Memphis last week and drummed then #17 Memphis in an 83-73 victory. However, just two days later, they were on the losing end of a 76-64 game against Louisville. However, that loss doesn't shine down as a bad loss for the Huskies and is more of a statement to how good the Cardinals are this year.
There's no doubt this team is going to consistently perform at a high level, it's what we have become accustomed to out of Connecticut teams. However, they will need to get more shots to fall on their first attempt or do a much better job rebounding if they want to stay in big games against Louisville and Cincinnati in the AAC. The Huskies average over 30 rebounds a game but are not even in the top 100 in the country with defensive rebounds per game (23.0) and fall out of the top 230 teams when it comes to offensive rebounds per game (8.7) and grab just over half of the available rebounds. UConn does have one of the most effective teams in the country when it comes to field goal percentage, draining over 46% of their shots which allows them to get away with not crashing the offensive boards nearly as often as other teams.
Player Spotlight: Shabazz Napier, senior guard, is, without a doubt, the leader of this Huskies team. Napier averaging over 17 points a game, six rebounds a game and six assists per game. He's the team leader from the stripe, connecting on 87% of his free throws, and takes the crown for points with 330 points so far this year. He also leads the Huskies' defense with two steals a game.
Toughest Game Left: at Cincinnati on February 6 and at Louisville on March 8
Predicted Finish: 25-6 and third in the AAC
Indiana State Sycamores
Indiana State is a team that is really getting sidelined due to the unnatural but extraordinary success of Wichita State. The Sycamores play in an extremely top heavy Missouri Valley Conference that has started to garner respect from outsiders because of the Shockers' success over the past few years. However the Sycamores deserve respect in their own right. Indiana State had a very big statement win early on when they beat then #23 Notre Dame 83-70 in their third game of the year. The only bad loss came ten days later when they lost to Tulsa in the Great Alaska Shootout in a 63-62 battle. They've also suffered losses against Belmont, who they later beat by 12, Saint Louis, a now top 25 team, and the undefeated #5 Shockers.
With five players averaging double figures, it's no surprise that the Sycamores are one of the top teams in the country in shooting efficiency posting a 47.8 FG% and a 72.6% efficiency from the stripe. The one area that is really hindering the Sycamores is their outside shot with a team average of 39% from beyond the arc. However, they do have effective deep threats in Demetrius Moore and Jake Kitchell who are both shooting at least 50% from downtown. On the defensive side of the ball, Indiana State lacks anyone who can block shots with no players averaging even one block per game.
Player Spotlight: Dawon Cummings, a senior guard for the Sycamores, is an extremely efficient player. He averages just over 11 points per game with two rebounds, two assists, and two steals. Cummings averages a 46.3 FG% and is third on the team in overall points with 211. The only thing Cummings doesn't do is crash the boards, with only 46 rebounds on the year.
Toughest Game Left: home against Wichita State on February 5
Predicted Finish: 26-5 and second in the Missouri Valley Conference
Harvard Crimson
Although the Crimson lack any real signature win which would boost their tournament stock, Harvard also lacks any home, neutral or double-digit loss that would hinder their rise in March. Harvard has only lost three times: at Colorado, at Connecticut and at Florida Atlantic, and 10 of their 14 wins have come by double digits. With only eight teams in the Ivy League, only half of the conference has a winning record right now which severely impacts the weight of any win the Crimson get in conference play, but winning the league would certainly help their case in March (along with assure them some spot in the 68 teams).
The Crimson only have eight players that play consistent minutes (over ten minutes a game). Of those eight, not one of them is averaging 40% from beyond the arc and only three average better than 35% from long range. However, the overall field goal average for these eight players is well over 47%. Only one of them shoots below 70% while two shoot above 80% from the line.
Player Spotlight: Wesley Saunders, a junior Crimson guard/ forward, easily takes the team lead in points, scoring over 15 per game and his defensive quickness shines through his team lead in steals with 35 on the year. Saunders is also in the top three of the Crimson in rebounds (76), assists (53), blocks (14) and FG% (48.2%).
Toughest Game Left: at Columbia on February 14
Predicted Finish: 27-3 and first in the Ivy League
Dayton Flyers
Dayton is the most mixed bag of the week. The Flyers have several quality wins (Gonzaga, California, Murray State, and Ole Miss) thrown into a bag with several weird losses to Illinois State and USC, a quality loss to Baylor and A-10 losses to Richmond, SLU, and VCU. Dayton dropped to 1-3 in conference play last night when they got drubbed by VCU 80-66 at home. The Flyers are seemingly in freefall right now with only one win over their last four games. They do, however, have the potential to be a great team in the A-10 if they can get back on track to the first 15 games of the season. Their schedule doesn't get much easier though, with absolutely no long home stretch the rest of the way. Head coach Archie Miller will need to get his team to perform on the road if they want to make headway in the packed A-10.
The Flyers are one of the most consistent teams out there. However, that consistency isn't always good as the Flyers average just three blocks and six steals per game as opposed to turning the ball over 13 times per game. Although their defense needs work, the Flyers are extremely consistent shooters which allows them to score 80+ when need be. Jordan Sibert provides a much needed outside shot and forwards Devin Oliver and Dyshawn Pierre crash the boards and make half of their combined shots. However, aside from those three starters, only one other player averages even nine points.
Player Spotlight: Devin Oliver, a senior forward for the Flyers, is the team leader in rebounds (133 on the year) and assists (47) and is also in the top three on the team in steals (16), points (224) and FG% (49.7%). Oliver also averages the most minutes per game and is rock solid from the stripe.
Toughest Game Left: at Saint Louis on March 5
Predicted Finish: 21-10 and fifth in the A-10
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