Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Good Pitching Will Beat Good Hitting Any Time... And Vice Versa.

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The 2014 MLB Post Season is set as far as teams go. But it wasn't an uneventful Sunday with five teams' post season fates hanging in the balance. The Cincinnati Reds chopped the legs out from under the Pittsburgh Pirates over the final two games including a walk off grand slam that sent the St. Louis Cardinals the NL Central Championship. The Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers won, sending the Tigers into the Divisional round and leaving the Royals with the Wild Card on Tuesday. And a 4-0 win in Arlington saved the Oakland A's from a possible 163rd day of baseball against the Seattle Mariners who went home after their win over the Los Angeles Angels. So, the table is set with the Royals, A's, Giants and Pirates taking the four wild cards while the Angels, Tigers, and Orioles claimed the AL West, Central and East divisions respectively and the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Nationals taking the NL West, Central and East divisions. But for now, we can all take a breath and collect ourselves before the post season starts tonight.

However, as we all know, here at Right of Centerfield I like to jump the gun when it comes to sports and love making bold, if not crazy, predictions for upcoming events whether it's College Football, NFL Playoffs, March Madness or even this very MLB season. So, here's a look ahead to some of the possible match ups we'll see come October and then an unveiling of the 2014 World Series Contenders as well as the Champion.

Tuesday, September 30* AL Wild Card
Oakland A's at Kansas City Royals
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The longest active post season drought is over. The Royals, after 29 years of post season let down, are led by Alex Gordon (.266/.351/.432) and James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA) but they simply do not score runs like a playoff team should, finishing the season 14th in runs scored with 651. Although KC has made a habit of not striking out, they are the only team in the league with less than 1,000 Ks on the season, they're also last in the league in home runs (95) and walks (380). However, when the Royals get on base they are the best at stealing bases (153). The Royals bullpen pitching and defense are the two stars for this team that will limit the A's dynamic offense- or what's left of it. Kansas City has the second best save percentage in the league (82%) behind only San Diego and the seventh, eighth and ninth inning combo of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland is better than any in the game averaging a 95.9 mph fastball and incredible movement on all of their pitches. Then there's the defense which has been commended by Terry Francona as saying, "[when Gordon, Jarrod Dyson, and Lorenzo Cain play] nothing drops [in the outfield]. Nothing."
Now, the A's have heard all of this before. However, they've also scored runs before and that hasn't panned out over the last month of the season when they have a post season contender worst 91 runs in September. (The Royals are only just above them at 96 though) Although, that may not matter in this round when the ever potent-in-October Jon Lester takes the mound. Lester has a 2.11 ERA in the post season and posted a 4-1 record with a 1.56 ERA last year en route to a World Series with the Red Sox. However, since the A's traded Cespedes for Lester there has been little pop in the lineup that they will desperately need against the superb pitching of James Shields and the KC bullpen.
A's: 2-1

Wednesday, October 1 NL Wild Card
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
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The 2014 National League MVPP- most valuable position player- will play host to the 2012 NL MVP as Buster Posey and the Giants come to Pittsburgh. However, rotation questions plague both of these clubs. Madison Bumgarner leads the Giants in wins (18), ERA (2.98), K's (219) and WHIP (1.09) and has won five of his last seven starts but Bumgarner has posted an 11.25 ERA while allowing five runs over four innings of his lone start against the Pirates this year. Meanwhile, the Pirates' pitching staff doesn't have a single starter with an ERA under 3.00 nor more than 13 wins. However, the Pirates and Giants are in the top 12 of the league in runs scored, 4.22 and 4.08 respectively, and total runs, 675 and 653 respectively. The Pirates lead the season series 4-2.
Pirates: 5-4

Thursday through Wednesday 2-2-1 (Best of 5) AL Divisional
Oakland A's at Los Angeles Angels
Angels in 3

Thursday through Wednesday 2-2-1 (Best of 5) AL Divisional
Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
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The Tigers are the best all around group of hitters going into the playoffs finishing in the top two spots in runs (757), batting average (.277), OBP (.331) and slugging percentage (.426). The Orioles have some of the top pop in their bats leading the league with 211 homers- 25 better than the second team who hails from no-gravity Colorado. Chris Tillman gets the nod to start for Baltimore most likely against Max Scherzer. However, don't count out the Tigers pitching to be the dominant factor in this series. Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello pack a decent 1-2-3 punch out of the gate while Al Alburquerque and Joe Nathan will strike out anyone who comes to the plate in the later innings. On the other side, Bud Norris and Wei-Yin Chen will follow Tillman to test the Tigers in the early innings and, much like the Tigers, Darren O'Day and Zach Britton will control the eighth and ninth. Runs will be at a premium but the bats in this one know how to drive in clutch runs even against stellar pitching.
Tigers in 5

Friday through Thursday 2-2-1 (Best of 5) NL Divisional
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
Nationals in 3

Friday through Thursday 2-2-1 (Best of 5) NL Divisional
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Can we have this as a World Series instead? No? Well it will certainly feel like a World Series matchup without the interleague lineup changes. Clayton Kershaw, Zach Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu to start against the likes of Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, and Shelby Miller? Who needs to hit the ball when the pitcher and catcher can just play catch all night? Of course, that might be the case if we also weren't going to be seeing Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez, Dee Gordon, Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp. And that's just the Dodgers. The season series is held by the Dodgers (4-3) but with Yadier Molina, back from a midseason injury to his catching thumb, the Cardinals can matchup with the contenders out west.
Dodgers in 4

Friday through Saturday 2-3-2 (Best of 7) AL Championship
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
Angels in 6

Saturday through Sunday 2-3-2 (Best of 7) NL Championship
Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals
This one will be even better than that St. Louis-LA matchup with the Nationals, not Kershaw, getting the nod for best pitching performance this season. Stephen Strasburg- yes, the same guy who was so highly touted as the most dominating pitcher in the country mere years ago- is not the backbone of the dominant starting pitching for the National League East Champion Washington Nationals. Tanner Roark (15-10, 2.85 ERA), an ace for most any team in the league, is relegated to the bullpen. Those are just hints as to how loaded the Nats' are on the mound. The reality is even more stunning. Jordan Zimmerman hasn't lost in the second half posting an 8-0 record along with a 2.18 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. Strasburg has a 3-1 record in September along with 32 K's and a total of three walks, that's 10.66 Ks/BB. Then Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez have two of the best pitches in the game with Fister's sinker being nearly unhittable and Gonzalez's curve resulting in a .156 average.
Kershaw and the Dodgers make a quality 1-2-3 starting rotation but questions abound after that and unless the offense picks them up the Dodgers will exit after five games. The Dodgers are 2-4 against the Nationals this season and who owns both of the wins? You guessed it, Clayton Kershaw. They've been outscored by a slim margin (25-23) even though they were shut out in the first game of the season. With Dee Gordon, NL steals leader, on the base paths no base is safe and with Yasiel Puig backing him up with a lighting rod of a bat, the early runs in innings are always at risk. This will be a tough battle that takes the two teams 2,308 miles across the country and through four timezones after each set of games. Luckily they get a nice full day between the games.
Nationals in 7

Tuesday through Wednesday 2-3-2 (Best of 7) World Series
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels
Why the Nationals win: Starting pitching is the key to this matchup with the Nationals simply dominating from start of the rotation to the back end and a pretty nice bullpen to back them up. Then there's Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche, and Anthony Rendon to score those runs that are somewhat important to winning a World Series. Plus a World Series trophy might inspire a change in Washington right before the November elections and maybe Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi will retire and buy the Nationals. Our nation's capitol hasn't had a World Series trophy in over 90 years. Let's change that this year, boys.
Why the Angels win: Mike Trout's insane ability and Albert Puljos' playoff experience will combine as a force of nature to conquer the National starting pitching to force early bullpen action. Oh and Howie Kendrick, the second best bat on this team, will be the 2011 David Freese and 2013 Big Papi of 2014 for this team of All Stars in the October Classic. The pitching will be the biggest question mark in a rotation that doesn't feature a single pitcher with an ERA under 3.00 and only Matt Shoemaker and Hector Santiago with improved ERAs post All Star Break. But when you score more runs than anyone else and own a higher away runs per game than home runs per game average, you are able to win games.
My Pick: The Nationals in seven games will pull off what some may call an upset and others will call destiny and others will simply say "Finally."
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A note for all my Reds fans out there: Each of the past two times Cincinnati has finished under .500, the following season has resulted in a National League Central title (2010, 2012) so don't be too upset with this finish.

*All dates are courtesy of mlb.com

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