I want to apologize for this 4 Point Play being a week late. A busy work and school schedule mixed with an unexpected visit to the ER this past weekend got me backed up on a lot of stuff, hopefully y'all didn't cry too much from missing a week of college basketball review.
Anyway, this week will be featuring a top team in a top conference that has pretty much no one talking about them along with an Ohio Valley leader that has become a household name come March. A rising star in the East and a solid rock out West will round out this week's 4 Point Play.
Virginia Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have been a behind the scenes team all year, yet they have crept into first place in the loaded ACC with a 13-1 in conference record after Syracuse's stunning loss to Boston College on Wednesday. Virginia will control their fate headed into March with four games left and the Orange of Syracuse coming to town next Saturday. Between now and then, Virginia will enjoy two more home games against Notre Dame and Miami (FL), neither of which have a winning record in conference play. The Cavaliers have only one bad loss on the year with the other four losses coming by a combined 20 points. That bad loss was the result of a road trip to SEC, middle-of-the-pack Tennessee at the end of December. The Volunteers piled on and shut down the Cavalier's offense to run away with an 87-52 win. Although they own the 47th hardest schedule in the country, Virginia has only played four Top 25 teams throughout the year and own only one win, a 48-45 road victory over Pitt, throughout those tests.
If you want a lot of scoring come March, go ahead and avoid Virginia games. The Cavaliers are 292nd in the country in scoring per game and have hit 80+ only once this entire season and average just over 65 points a game. However, who needs to score when you have one of the most dominant defenses in the country? Virginia shuts down all of their opponents and have only given up 75+ twice this season. They are the leading team in shutdown defense in the country only allowing an average of 55.3 points per game. Although, they don't do much crazy against their opponents with limited steals (5.8), blocks (4) and rebounds (25) per game, this defense does lead the country in opponent field goal percentage limiting their opponents to 41.6% shooting from the field.
Player Spotlight: Malcom Brogdon, sophomore guard for Virginia, is an extremely efficient player (43% from the field) and the Cavalier's main offensive threat with 12.3 points per game. Brogdon is deadly accurate from the charity stripe with an 88% average and only ten misses on the year. His 160 rebounds and 68 assists are both second on the team for the season while he leads the Cavs with 37 steals and a 1.13:1 turnover-steal ratio.
Toughest Game Left: A visit from Syracuse this Saturday will pit the top two teams in the ACC against each other for the first time all season
Predicted Finish: 26-5 and first in the ACC
Belmont Bruins
The Bruins are first in the Ohio Valley East, first overall in the Ohio Valley Conference and the only team in the conference to have 12 wins in conference along with 20+ wins overall, and this isn't a fluke. With two games left in their season, Belmont, a semi-regular March Madness contender, is setting the stage for another return to the top 68 and is easily the team to beat in the Ohio Valley. Just like many smaller mid-majors, Belmont's schedule doesn't look all that impressive at first glance with only two Top 25 teams and a four game losing streak. However, the Bruins own a 1-1 record against the AP Top 25 with both games sending Belmont away from home. In easily their biggest win of the year the Bruins visited then #12 UNC and stole a three point victory, 83-80. The biggest question mark for this talented Bruins team is the fact that they have played in 12 games that were decided by single digits, winning all but one. Can the Bruins continue to close out tight games come March?
Shooting 50% from the field will help any team make a run for March Madness. Couple that with 80 points per game alongside 15 assists and you get one dominant offensive unit. Their rebounding is less than stellar, but when you shoot 50% there aren't all that many chances for you to collect a ball off the glass. In order to win in March, though, their defense will need to step up and start shutting down opposing offenses. As of now, the Bruins have allowed an average of 75 points per game. A five point margin for error is not an extremely comfortable pillow to have come tourney time.
Player Spotlight: Craig Bradshaw, a sophmore guard, is the second leading scorer for the Bruins and one of the most efficient players on the floor. Bradshaw hits 52% of his shots from the field and 42% from three point range. The biggest hole in his game is his turnover-steal ratio which registers at a pitiful 2.25:1.
Toughest Game Left: Both of their final games on on the road to less than formidable opponents so either one is fair game for a let down. Tonight against SIU-Edwardsville and March 1 at Jacksonville State
Predicted Finish: 23-8, first in Ohio Valley East
North Carolina Central Eagles
Having run off thirteen straight wins, the Eagles of North Carolina Central haven't lost in over a month, own a two game lead in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference and are in prime position to go March-ing for the first time in school history. The Eagles' upcoming schedule will pit them against one team with a winning record and four teams that have yet to win thirteen games this season, but such is life in the lower tier conferences and the Eagles are seemingly beating whomever they play. The Eagles are, however, taking a hit for having absolutely no wins against top 50 RPI teams and one win against the top 100. That one win was a quality one though against in-state rival North Carolina State. The Eagles forced an overtime game at NC State before coming away with a 10 point, 82-72, win in mid November. Since that early game, NCC has played two top 100 opponents, unbeaten Wichita State and ACC member Maryland, and lost in back to back road games.
Yes, the Eagles haven't played the highest quality of opponents throughout the year but that doesn't diminish the fact that they keep their opponents from scoring no matter what. Allowing just under 60 points a game, this defense is extremely talented and has yet to allow a team to put up more than 77 points in a game. Eleven times the Eagles have held their opponents to 55 points or less while allowing more than 70 in only five games. That shut down defense is key to the wins for this program though seeing as the offense has only managed to score 80+ in seven games this year and is averaging a mediocre 73 points per game. Although scoring is not a highlight of the games, the Eagles are one of the most selfless teams in the nation averaging 15 assists per game while shooting 46% from the field.
Player Spotlight: Emanuel Chapman a senior guard for the Eagles is not my usual spotlight player in that he only averages just above six points per game and has scored just 161 points on the year. However, Chapman is an incredible threat off the boards with 4.2 rebounds per game, a pure assist guy with a team leading 178 assists on the year (6.8 per game) and a threat to pick your pocket every time with 58 steals for the season.
Toughest Game Left: A visit to Norfolk State on March 6 looks to be the only stumbling block in NCC's path for first time March-ing
Predicted Finish: 25-5 and first in the MEAC
New Mexico State Aggies
A half game separates the Aggies from the first place Utah Valley Wolverines in the Western Athletic Conference. Oh, and the next game up for the Aggies? Two days from now at Utah Valley (you can go ahead and mark this one down as an early March Madness game for the WAC). Although New Mexico State owns a grand total of one win against Top 50 RPI teams, the Aggies have eight wins against the Top 150 while sitting with an RPI of 82. The Aggies' most intriguing games thus far this season have been the home and away Battles of New Mexico against the Lobos. The Aggies lost at home in the midst of a four game losing streak before grabbing a six point victory on the road over New Mexico to split the season's series.
Anchored by a disciplined 49% field goal percentage, the Aggies are one of the most efficient teams in the country. That efficiency backs up an inconsistent defense by scoring 78+ per game. Their defense has holes but one of them is not shot blocking where they average over six blocks per game which allows them to keep opponents just shy of 70 points. Nine of the Aggies have played at least 10 minutes in 23+ games this season, but only three players average double digits.
Player Spotlight: Daniel Mullings a junior guard for NMSU is the Aggies' most rounded player. Mullings leads the team with 16.9 points per game and is a dangerous option from all across the field with a 31% shooting average from beyond the arc and a 46% average from the general field. He is also a top threat to rebound (142 on the year), steal (53 for the season) and pass the ball off (3.3 assists per game).
Toughest Game Left: As I said earlier, the early March Madness game on February 27 (tomorrow) will pit the top two WAC powers against each other
Predicted Finish: 24-8 and first in the WAC
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