Four mid-majors headline this week's 4-Point Play all with potential to be bracket-busting dark horses come March Madness. The Bulldogs of Gonzaga are back to their usual dominant self while the MAC is yet again showing their quality as a sleeper conference. LA Tech's basketball program is attempting to reflect the football team's success over recent years and the Lobos are clawing to stay relevant behind #5 San Diego State in the Mountain West.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Zaga is primed for another West Coast Conference championship but need to be ready for a road game gauntlet that starts at BYU and finishes at Saint Mary's to finish out the season. The Bulldogs have yet to lose a game by more than 10 points but hail only two quality wins out of conference. Their first quality win featured a 12 point shutdown of New Mexico State at home. Their second came the following outing when the Bulldogs pulled out an 80-76 win over the extremely inconsistent West Virginia Mountaineers. Aside from an extremely unusual loss at Portland in early January, the Bulldogs have only one questionable loss to the Dayton Flyers on a neutral court while their other two losses came against up and coming Kansas State and talented Memphis, both away from home.
You want efficiency? Look no further than the Bulldogs. Although they only average 78 points a game, Gonzaga drains over 50% of their shots from the field. They are also one of the top 15 most efficient teams in the country according to Team Rankings. They also pound the defensive glass to grab 26 rebounds off opponents missed shots and 73% of all available defensive rebounds. Their 78 points per game is more than plenty when their defense allows just 65 points a game and have allowed over 75 points only six times on the season. Three Bulldogs have pulled down over 110 rebounds on the season while two others have eclipsed the 100 assist mark for the year. The team's top six minute contributors (all averaging over 25 minutes a game) shoot for just under 51% from the field and four of them shoot better than 35% from beyond the arc.
Player Spotlight: Kevin Pangos, 6'-2" junior guard, is the Bulldog's leading scorer (15 per game) and grabs just under four rebounds, collects over four assists and grabs at least one steal a game. His 43% from the field and 42% from downtown make him a deadly option anywhere on the court including his stunning 89% average from the charity stripe.
Toughest Game Left: at BYU on February 20 and at Saint Mary's March 1
Predicted Finish: 26-5 and first in the WCC
Toledo Rockets
The Rockets are the premier team in the Mid-American Conference this year. Although they are tied with Akron for best conference record (8-2), Toledo is undoubtedly the team to beat over the next three weeks. The Rockets sailed through the first 12 games of the season with only five of those games being decided by less than double digits. Their first loss came at the hands of the Andrew Wiggins-led Kansas Jayhawks at the end of December. However, their worst game came over a week later in their first conference game at Western Michigan. The prolific Rockets were held to 76 points for only the second time of the year and their sub-par defense allowed 87 points for the fourth time. Toledo followed that loss up with a six game winning streak before a hard fought OT loss at Ohio. Their best game and biggest win on the season came during that six game streak in a trip to Akron. The Rockets stomped the Zips in a 75-61 battle of top dogs.
With one of the most dominant offenses in the country, it's no surprise that Toledo is averaging over 83 points per game and shoots 48% from the field. They can, and do, run with most any team they play including being one of only four teams to put up 83 on a stingy Kansas defense. Five Rockets average double digits and three of them average over 14 points per game. Although they have left over 180 points at the free throw line due to a 73% team shooting percentage from the stripe, Toledo boasts three players who have eclipsed the 330 point mark on the season. Their defense leaves much to be desired allowing almost 75 points per game and grabbing just over 24 rebounds with less than three blocks a game.
Player Spotlight: Rian Pearson, 6'-4" senior guard, does a little bit of just about everything and a lot of some things. Pearson averages 14.7 points per game to go along with over five rebounds, four assists and just under two steals each game. He also shoots just under 50% from the field and over 40% from beyond the arc. His only weakness is his shooting from the charity stripe at just over 65%, cashing in on 60 of 91 chances this season.
Toughest Game Left: Western Michigan on March 1
Predicted Finish: 28-3 and first in the MAC
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Louisiana Tech is one of the top mid-major programs in the country with one of the most effective offenses in the country that compliments an incredibly fast defense. Sitting a half game back in Conference USA, the Bulldogs have all the makings of a quality March Madness team and a schedule that could send them coasting into the conference championship. The offense has only been held under 70 three times this season and the defense has only allowed five opponents to reach 80+. A huge loss to Oklahoma State saw the Bulldog offense held to less than 60 for the only time this season. However, LA Tech bounced back at Oklahoma two weeks later and beat the Sooners 102-98 in overtime. Through the season's final six games, only two of their opponents, Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion, own a better than .500 conference record.
These Bulldogs seem to be able to do everything. They shoot over 46%, score an average over 84 per game, pound the glass to grab 40 rebounds, and finds the open man for 16.5 assists per game. And that's just their offense. Their defense will steal the ball from just about everyone en route to nine steals a game, they'll block over five of your shots and grab over 27 of the missed shots. Oh and they hold teams to under 68 points a game. Seven players for LA Tech average over 20 minutes a game and three of them average double digits, three grab at least four rebounds per game and six of them average at least one steal per game.
Player Spotlight: Alex Hamilton, 6'-4" sophomore guard, shoots over 47% from the field and is the team's leading scorer with over 370 points on the year. Hamilton is second on the team in assists (3.2) and steals (1.4) per game.
Toughest Game Left: at UAB on March 2
Predicted Finish: 26-5 and second in Conference USA
New Mexico Lobos
The Lobos are in an extremely top heavy conference along with #5 San Diego State in the Mountain West but are making the most of their chances to scratch their way into March Madness with an 18-5 record this year. A disappointing loss last night at Boise State sent New Mexico a full game behind the Aztecs but they are still two games ahead of second place UNLV who they visit next week. This loss to the Mustangs was their closest of the year and only the second to be decided by one possession. Their other four losses include two neutral site games against Massachusetts and Kansas, a tough game against New Mexico State, and their first meeting against UNLV. Before their home loss to the Aggies, New Mexico visited New Mexico State and posted a nine point win on the road. A week before their neutral site showdown with Kansas, the Lobos hosted Cincinnati in early December and earned themselves a quality, resume-boosting 63-54 win.
New Mexico crashes the boards harder than most teams in the country translating to limited second chance points for their opponents and multiple opportunities on the offensive side of the ball. The Lobos average just under 39 rebounds per game with 27 of those coming off the defensive glass. They also love the passing game and share the ball well averaging 15 assists per game. Only three Lobos average double digits, but all three of them average over 14 and one, Cameron Bairstow, averages over 20 points a game. Five Lobos have eclipsed 36 assists on the season while Kendall Williams averages five per game and has 115 on the season.
Player Spotlight: Kendall Williams, 6'-4" senior guard, is the Lobos' second highest scorer but his all around game play gives New Mexico an edge that Bairstow doesn't have. Williams averages over three rebounds alongside five assists and his fast hands result in just under two steals per game. He shoots over 43% from the field, 79% from the stripe and 43% from beyond the arc.
Toughest Game Left: at San Diego State on March 8
Predicted Finish: 24-7 and second in the Mountain West
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