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1. Alabama
Many questions rolled in after the Ole Miss loss. Is Blake Sims the quarterback for Saban? Where's the defense that we've come to know and love to hate? Those questions simply piled up after a one point win at Arkansas. Why isn't Jake Cocker starting? Seriously, what is going on with the offense? The Crimson Tide shut down many critics with their destruction of the Aggies. Their defense was on point and their offense was spectacular. That's how you score 59 unanswered points. But that was in Tuscaloosa, so not all the critics were convinced. Then Lane Kiffin made his "homecoming" (not as fun as most homecomings) and Bama looked like the dynastic team of old. Amari Cooper, once again, emerged as the man for the Tide with 200+ yards and two scores. Now the Tide has the week off and time to prepare for Les Miles in Death Valley. That game will decide the fate of Alabama. If they win, they'll roll over the last three games (all at home) over the state of Mississippi with a "bye week" in between. If they lose, the Tide won't be able to come back and beat Prescott the following week.
2. Mississippi State
The defense isn't what we had come to expect from SEC royalty. They've let up 23+ in all four SEC games. However, when you have a quarterback as efficient as Dak Prescott, you can afford to let up a few points. Dak is responsible for 25 touchdowns thus far. Yes, 25. He also has 2,358 all purpose yards and has spread the ball around so much that nine different receivers have at least one score and seven have double digit receptions and triple digit receiving yards. Then there's the 10 touchdowns on the ground paired with 10 more from Josh Robinson. All around, offensively, outside of the Big 12, Oregon, and Michigan State you'd be hard pressed to find such a complete offense. The Bulldogs have a relatively easy schedule considering they play Arkansas, UT Martin (their next two games) and Vanderbilt at home. Of course, they travel to Alabama and Ole Miss for the Egg Bowl, but for now the Bulldogs should be safe.
3. Florida State
Go ahead and hand the ACC to Jimbo and Winston. A comeback against a defense that got completely demoralized at half (no idea why, they had let up 7 points and had two interceptions to Famous Jameis) and a schedule that features four teams with a combined 17-13 record the Noles' toughest test left? A visit from Boston College who will have a week off between Louisville and FSU. Of course, the way the Noles have played this season don't expect them to cruise, but with the team, skill and luck they have I won't be betting against them anymore in the regular season. But then there's Duke in the championship game. The same Duke team that went to and exposed Georgia Tech earlier this year. So, maybe I shouldn't give away the ACC so easy.
4. Oregon
Sure, the Heisman candidate threw a pick. One pick. On 218 attempts. I think it's safe to say Marcus is Heisman worthy. That is if he can finally conquer his Kryptonite this weekend. Stanford has played spoiler the past two seasons for the Ducks, handing them their first loss of the season both times Mariota has played them. They don't get that chance this time with Arizona playing spoiler earlier on this season. However, Marcus and Co. haven't lost a step by putting up 42+ in their last three contests. The next two weeks will be crucial for the Ducks' playoff hopes when they host the Cardinal and travel to Utah to take on a surprisingly good group of Utes. Beating Stanford will simply be the next logical step forward for the Ducks and Mariota who is putting together a spectacular season all around.
5. Auburn
6. Notre Dame
Notre Dame will need to prove they won't allow the FSU "loss" to define their season by taking down Navy this weekend before a trip to Arizona State and their toughest road game the rest of the way against the Sun Devils. Golson still remains one of the top quarterbacks in the fourth quarter and Corey Robinson and Tarean Folston get better each game. The Notre Dame defense will need to forget about Rashad Greene, not look ahead to Arizona State and simply focus on this triple option offense of Navy's that has yet to be slowed as much as it has been countered. The Midshipmen have tripped up the Irish three of the last seven meetings but Golson had no trouble with them in his debut two years ago when the Irish demolished Navy 50-10. The Notre Dame defense has limited Navy's rushing attack to 345 yards total over the past two contests. Navy has been averaging 352 yards per game this year. Something is going to have to give. The Irish need to make sure it's not on their end if they want to stay in the playoff hunt.
7. Michigan State
8. Georgia
9. TCU
If you forget about the last 11:38 of that trip to Baylor, like the Horned Frogs would love the playoff selection committee to do, TCU is perfect on the season. They put up more points than most scorekeepers can handle which comes from having one of the most potent offense in the country. Trevone Boykin is making a Heisman case and their schedule isn't all that difficult after the next two big tests. The first will be a true test of two rising programs on Saturday when TCU travels to West Virginia, both coming off of huge wins. Boykin will need to settle in and control the tempo and clock much like he did against Baylor. Their defense will need to limit Clint Trickett who has accounted for eight touchdowns and two interceptions over the last four games. If TCU can take down the Mountaineers on the road that Baylor meltdown might be forgiven by the playoff committee.
10. Ole Miss
11. Kansas State
12. Ohio State
13. LSU
The Tigers are the best two loss team in the country, no doubt. Especially when the only losses are to Mississippi State and Auburn. Two quality losses right there. However, LSU hasn't been consistent this season with their most complete game (against an FPI top 50 team) being when they ripped apart Kentucky at home 41-3. The previous game they were almost beaten by a much-maligned Florida team that had barely beaten Tennessee. Then their defense showed up and shutdown Bo Wallace in Death Valley and their offense did just enough against the stingy Ole Miss defense in a 10-7 win. Now the Tigers get the week off to prepare for Nick Saban and the Tide. A Death Valley showdown with serious SEC implications will be their last true test of the season. Their final two games are on the road but against the welcome mats of the SEC West; Arkansas and Texas A&M.
14. Arizona State
15. Arizona
16. Nebraska
17. West Virginia
18. Utah
19. Marshall
Rakeem Cato deserves a Heisman for the year he is having. But then again, maybe if Mariota and Prescott weren't playing he'd get one. Cato has accounted for 25 (yeah, the same has Prescott) touchdowns this year, 2,385 all purpose yards and an 8-0 record. Unfortunately, as great as the Herd have played- they've scored 35+ in all their games while allowing only two opponents to top 17- there is only about a 4% chance that they will even be considered for the playoff and that's only if every single Power 5 champion has three losses and the Herd stays perfect. Their highest FPI opponent was Middle Tennessee (76) but no statement games and not a single power 5 opponent dooms the Herd's playoff chances. However, a top 16 ranking would earn them a spot in another New Years Bowl, as long as they can beat out East Carolina.
20. East Carolina
21. Clemson
22. Baylor
23. Duke
24. Louisville
Well there went that prediction. Almost no way the Cardinals can bounce back from that demoralizing second half against FSU. Especially with Boston College, Notre Dame and Kentucky left on their schedule. They will get a late bye between Boston College and Notre Dame coming to town. And to think, Ville was up 21-0 with less than a minute left in the first half over Famous Jameis. The Noles just showed they might just be the best second half team in the country.
25. Wisconsin
#1 Alabama plays #4 Oregon
#2 Mississippi State plays #3 Florida State
These picks are based on Strength of Schedule, W/L record, FPI, difficulty of remaining schedule and gut instinct. These are by no means final predictions, but after seven or eight games, this is my view for how things have shaken out so far. No other polls were used to determine the top 25.
Well, that was a shakeup. Two of my Top 25 didn't even make the selection committee's rankings (Marshall and Wisconsin) while Oklahoma and UCLA both appeared in the selection. Five CFP Top 25 games this weekend will help clear the air a bit starting with a marquee matchup between Florida State and Louisville at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium in Louisville. The scoreboard breaking TCU Horned Frogs will take on the red hot Mountaineers in West Virginia, Arizona will travel to up and down UCLA and a matchup of Top 20 teams will pit the Utes against the Sun Devils for control of the PAC 12 South. However, the biggest matchup that will ultimately go lightyears in confirming the fate of two of the top 4 playoff teams takes place in Oxford when Auburn visits the Rebs who will be looking to bounce back from a trip to Death Valley.
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