Thursday, October 16, 2014

When Bowl Eligibility Comes A-Knocking

Four teams couldn't get to the door and will have to wait until this weekend for their chance at sealing a ticket to eligibility. In fact, 17 teams will be fighting for eligibility this weekend.
Six teams answered the call for bowl eligible through seven weeks of football and two of them play each other this weekend in Tallahassee while two more meet in Oxford to end the season. The showdown in Tallahassee will be the biggest game before the CFP selection committee releases their first ranking of the season near the end of October. But the fun doesn't stop at one loss in the playoff era of college football so it's time to take a look at some of those not quite unblemished teams still in the hunt.

SEC Best
Courtesy zimbio.com

There's a reason this division might as well be their own conference this year. Five of the FPI top 10 teams are in the western division of the powerhouse conference including three of the top five and no SEC West team is outside the top 19 even with Arkansas's 0 wins in conference. The top four teams could all be included in this year's inaugural college football playoff and most college football fans wouldn't bat an eye. Auburn, Ole Miss, Alabama and Mississippi State all have top 7 strength of record and all rank in the top 8 in overall team efficiency- in the country.
Auburn's résumé: two wins against AP top 20 teams, three wins against the FPI top 30, last season's SEC champion, and a lone loss on the road to Mississippi State
Ole Miss's résumé: four wins over FPI top 51 teams, two AP top 15 teams, a road victory in the home of the 12th man and over possible Heisman Kenny Hill, possible Heisman candidate Bo Wallace, an unblemished record
Alabama's résumé: three wins over FPI top 40 teams, Nick Saban dynasty, a lone loss on the road to Ole Miss
Mississippi State's résumé: a win over the top FPI team, two other FPI top 15 victories, three AP top 8 wins, possible Heisman winner Dak Prescott, a nine game winning streak, an unblemished record
The Heisman and SEC might be decided in the Egg Bowl with the Iron Bowl being a consolation prize. Of course, it's more likely than not that either Mississippi State or Ole Miss will drop a game before they meet up but don't be too surprised if you see the Magnolia State come down to that showdown.

SEC lEast (?)
Courtesy theblawghouse.com
Georgia proved they aren't a one man show in convincing fashion on the road over Missouri to improve to 5-1 on the season and 3-1 in conference. Kentucky is a questionable three-overtime loss at Florida away from perfect and avoided the proverbial trap game against Vanderbilt, beat South Carolina in a shootout and, after a rough start, scored 45 unanswered points to blow out ULM to improve to 5-1 and 2-1 in conference. Missouri and Florida battle it out this weekend to see who will be left to fight for the SEC East lead but Mizzou is behind the eight ball badly right now and would need to beat Kentucky at home and go the rest of the way unblemished and hope for a Georgia loss somewhere along the way. Meanwhile, Florida will play one more road game against a division opponent (Vanderbilt) and get Missouri, Georgia and South Carolina in the Swamp before an end of the season trip to Tallahassee.
If the East wants to get back on par with the West they might want to start by winning a game or two against them. They'll get that chance this weekend with Georgia, Kentucky and Tennessee all taking on West opponents... on the road. However, both Georgia (against Arkansas) and Kentucky (against LSU) could grab wins for their division to save the East from true embarrassment after an 0-4 start against West foes.

Bears and Sooners, Cowboys, Wildcats; The Stage is Set
Courtesy of fansided.com

The Big 12 has cemented themselves as the second best conference this season with five teams in the top 15 and a second-half series of showdowns that will rival those of the SEC. Two of those teams only have lost against the 2014 BCS Championship teams. Baylor is undefeated- something neither the PAC 12 nor Big 10 have- and features a Heisman-worthy candidate in Bryce Petty.
For Big 12 fans, November 8 was circled on their calendar as the day the conference would be decided when Bob Stoops and Co. would welcome the Bears into Norman for a showdown with playoff implications. Baylor did their part even if Oklahoma didn't do their own the previous week. The Bryce Bears came roaring back to score 24 points in the last 11 minutes to save their undefeated season in a shootout 61-58 victory over visiting TCU. Oklahoma, although they lost to the Horned Frogs just last week, is 2-1 in conference but behind OSU and KSU, not to mention Baylor, for a chance to claim the Big 12 spotlight. The Cowboys of Oklahoma State will get to meet TCU's high powered offense this weekend when they travel to Fort Worth, Texas, maybe a defense will show up this time. Kansas State, meanwhile, will be taking on Oklahoma in Norman and hoping to show the country they mean business after their last high profile game against Auburn didn't go their way.

The Ducks Are Driving the PAC 12 Bus
After a shocking upset at the hands of Arizona two weeks ago, Oregon's PAC 12 dominance was questioned by many- myself included- and they had to face a road game against upstart UCLA, it was a recipe for disaster. But then again, Marcus Mariota and the Ducks don't do disaster. Oregon went up 42-10 early in the fourth quarter and cruised to a 42-30 road win. And after USC took down Arizona, the Ducks returned to the top of the PAC 12 standings and are in full control of their own destiny out west. A showdown against Stanford looms in November before a trip to the inconsistent Utes of Utah as the only true tests the rest of the season for the Ducks. However, neither division is decided yet with USC, Arizona and Arizona State separated by one game in the South and Oregon and Stanford tied for the North lead. It's still anyone's spot in the post season discussion, but Oregon has the Heisman candidate to rally behind and an offensive line that can hold him up.

Courtesy of trbimg.com

Spartans or Bust?
The Big 10 is alive and well with four teams undefeated in conference play and one loss outside of conference. Of course Michigan State has the best loss and the most complete team in the conference but Barrett and Co. have lit up the scoreboards since that humiliating loss to Virginia Tech, Iowa is four points from perfect, and Minnesota has allowed one team- TCU, remember them?- to score more than 24 points this season.
  • Michigan State is the best chance the Big 10 has of making the playoff with a loss at Oregon being the only blemish on an otherwise clean year. Connor Cook is throwing for 1309 yards and 13 touchdowns while the backfield duo of Jeremy Langford and Nick Hill have busted in nine rushing TDs and over 800 yards thus far. The biggest question mark is the Spartans' ability to close out games. The defense has allowed 54 points in the fourth quarter while the offense has only scored 28, with zero points in the 4th against ranked opponents. That may not be a very big problem though with only one more ranked opponent (#13 Ohio State) to play and both rivalry games (Michigan and OSU) coming into East Lansing.
  • JT Barrett is leading an offense that has scored 168 points over the past three games while throwing for 909 yards, 14 touchdowns and one interception. On the other side of the ball, OSU is just as dominant, allowing 183 total rushing yards and 2.7 yards per attempt over those three games. They've forced seven turnovers and had just four of their own. Now, that was against Kent State, Cincinnati and at Maryland so we'll see how they do with the meat of their schedule coming up with a game against much improved Rutgers this weekend, a trip to roller coaster Penn State and a November 8 date in East Lansing that might decide the Big 10 East- and possibly the Big 10 champion.
  • Iowa can score but doesn't need to when their defense is allowing 17.2 points in all but an outlier to Indiana (a game where their offense put up 45). Their only loss was a three point test against in-state Big 12 rival Iowa State but they also haven't played an FPI top 40 team yet but will play their second top 50 team of the year on Saturday in a trip to Maryland.
  • Another Big 12 team took down the Big 10 when Minnesota visited TCU and went home after a 30-7 pounding. However, since that game Minnesota has taken down Michigan in the Big House and the upstart Northwestern at home and the Golden Gophers won't face another true test before a November 8 matchup against Iowa before closing out their season with a visit from the Buckeyes and a road trip to Nebraska and Wisconsin. Minnesota struggles to move the ball through the air with a quarterback who has thrown more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (3) but he has five touchdowns on the ground while the team has 13 rushing TDs, 1272 yards on the ground and averages 4.7 yards per carry this season.
Abounding Confusion Conference
Atlantic
The division that's been all too top-heavy over the past few years hasn't changed much thus far. Florida State has been truly dominant in only one of their six wins, a 43-3 demolition of Wake Forest, and is heading into their toughest test of the season on Saturday when Notre Dame comes to town. Clemson has two losses but both were road defeats to top 15 opponents and their hardest game the rest of the way might just be a road trip to Georgia Tech and not their end of the season matchup with Spurrier. Louisville has a top tier defense but has two in conference losses and will face a difficult end to the season with games against Florida State, Notre Dame and Kentucky in the final five weeks.
Biggest games left: Notre Dame at Florida State, Clemson at Georgia Tech, Florida State at Louisville
Coastal
Virginia has beaten Louisville but has lost to UCLA and BYU, both of whom have been drastically exposed but this weekend Virginia we'll find out if the Cavaliers are for real when they visit Duke. After beating Georgia Tech for the first time in 10 tries, Duke is looking to take control of the Coastal division when Virginia comes to town this weekend. If Duke can win, they should be able to coast to a rematch with Florida State. Georgia Tech was undefeated last week but is now facing an uphill battle to capture the division and showdowns against Clemson and Georgia are farther off than ever.
Biggest games left: Virginia at Duke, Clemson at Georgia Tech

Golson is Golden

Okay, he isn't lights out and he does commit turnovers that shouldn't happen but he is the most poised quarterback in the country on the important drives, like that game winner against Stanford or the go ahead drive against North Carolina. He has 16 touchdowns through the air and four on the ground and only has four interceptions. However, he has gone down 10 times and, like much of the team, overlooked North Carolina last weekend in favor of this weekend's showdown in Tallahassee. But, the Irish pulled out all the stops and finished off the Tar Heels to stay perfect. Then there's the ground attack of Tarean Folston, Greg Bryant and Cam McDaniel who have combined for six touchdowns and 645 yards and help balance out the team's offensive capabilities. On the other side of the ball, the Irish were giving up an average of 12 points before North Carolina. Now, they're just eighth best in the country at 17.2 points per game. The defense is also eighth in the nation in interceptions (10) and has held their opponents to 10 touchdowns in 17 red zone attempts and have forced four turnovers. They'll need to slow down the FSU offense and Golson will need to keep mistakes to a minimum if they want to take the Game Day game on Saturday but the offense and defense have each proven themselves over the past two games.

And this week's Heisman goes to...
Bryce Petty for staying calm down 21 at home and surgically tearing apart the TCU defense in the final 11 minutes to set up the game winning field goal.
In the front row:
Marcus Mariota (285 all purpose yards, 4 touchdowns at UCLA), Nick Chubb (174 total yards and one score for Gurley-less Bulldogs), Georgia defense (0 points allowed, 5 turnovers forced and held Mizzou to 147 total yards), Rakeem Cato (337 passing yards, 4 total touchdowns), and Javess Blue (this catch)

Who meets New Years?
Dak Attack vs Golden Golson- Defense vs defense and Prescott vs Golson, this one's a late Christmas gift to football fans everywhere
Bulldogs vs Bears- If Georgia keeps the defense alive, Baylor will be hard pressed to find any scoring opportunites

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