Friday, January 3, 2014

Questions Cloud AFC Playoff Picture

The AFC playoff race came to a wild finish on Sunday amidst questions of a missed call or two in the Chiefs-Chargers game in San Diego that booted the Steelers from a playoff berth and welcomed in the Chargers. Although the wild card hasn't even started yet, there are two teams that, although they both have questions, are ready to meet on January 19 for the AFC Championship. One team is a Super Bowl pick from week one the other is the most complete team the AFC has to offer this year. A quarterback for the ages and a quarterback looking to make his own in the NFL. The AFC's top offense versus the AFC's top defense. It's a match made in football heaven.

Denver Broncos (13-3)
The Manning-era Broncos are making noise again. From the beginning of the year we knew this would be a special year the way the Broncos clicked on offense scoring 40+ in five of the first eight weeks and going 7-1 in that span. They've topped 50 in three games this season but for the most part came back down to earth after their bye only topping 37 in one game and losing two after the break. On the arm of Manning, Denver finished with the top passing offense in the NFL. Behind Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball, the Broncos didn't have the top running game but both backs were a sizable enough threat to keep defenses watching the line, allowing AirManning (patent pending) to go to work.
While the offense was almost a given, the defense was a sizable question mark for this team. They finished the season with a top 10 rush defense but finished in the bottom six in pass defense. How far these Broncos go rests on the shoulders of their defense. Will Shaun Phillips be able to get to the quarterback like he did in the first five games where he racked up 5.5 sacks with 14 tackles (or be a monster as in the week 11 Chiefs game) or will the trend continue from the final six weeks of the season where he collected 1 sack and 8 tackles in two losses? Is Danny Trevathan, who leads the team with 128 combined tackles, able to put up double digit tackling numbers for the eighth time this year? These are both big questions for a defense that has had an up and down year.
The good news? 
Neither of their possible Divisional Round opponents (Chiefs or Colts) have a top 15 pass offense and the Broncos are 7-1 at home this year.
The news?
The Broncos' three losses have come at the hands of the Colts, the Patriots and the Chargers. All these teams are now in the playoffs. It should also be noted that Denver beat the Eagles and Chiefs. Both of them are in the playoffs. The gist: 3-3 against playoff teams.
The bad news?
If the Chiefs beat the Colts this Saturday, they will be playing the Broncos in Denver the following week. The Chiefs have already lost twice to the AFC West Champs. They are not in the mood to lose again.

Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
With arguably the most complete team in this year's AFC playoff picture the one question mark that looms over this Bengals team is the same as it was during the regular season and the past two postseasons. Will Andy Dalton play his game or continue to come up empty in the big games? Dalton has been one of the best and one of the worst quarterbacks throughout the season.
He started the season with some consistency, throwing for 16 touchdowns on 2, 249 yards opposite 6 interceptions through the first 8 games of the season. Over the second half, the consistency dropped as did his QBR (99.0 in first half, 79.5 in second half). This also correlated with three of the five losses the Bengals suffered throughout the year. However, Dalton did break the single season passing yards and passing touchdowns franchise records which hints that he is capable of consistent success, but as a third year starter, he has yet to find his rhythm for long.
Dalton had the skill to get the Bengals into the playoffs but his receiving corps has the talent to get Cincinnati deep into the playoffs. AJ Green and Marvin Jones lead the loaded corps with 11 and 10 touchdowns respectively. The depth of receivers for Cincinnati is extremely apparent when you look at the fact that six of their receivers reached at least 440 yards. New England is the only other AFC playoff team to have six receivers with at least 400 yards.
Cincinnati has a ground attack that didn't manufacture a single game 100 yard rusher throughout the season. That's because talented veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis splits the carries with outstanding rookie Giovani Bernard. The duo ended the season with 1, 451 rushing yards on 390 carries, averaging 3.7 yards per carry and 12 trips to the endzone.
Oh, and then there's this defense. Vontaze Burfict is the undisputed heart and soul of this top 5 defense. He has unloaded on offenses all year racking up 171 total tackles, 3 sacks and 2 recovered fumbles. The Bengals have both the fifth ranked rush and fifth ranked pass defense in the NFL and the best defense in the AFC playoffs.
The good news?
Cincinnati is 4-0 against playoff teams this year. That includes wins over New England, San Diego and Indianapolis in the AFC.
The news?
The Bengals are undefeated at Paul Brown Stadium this year. They face a Chargers team that is 4-3 on the road this year.
The bad news?
Chris Crocker (S), Dre Kirkpatrick (CB), Tyler Eifert (TE), Jermaine Gresham (TE) and AJ Green (WR) are all listed as questionable this week. Although there are still two days to go before the wild card game, it's never a good feeling to have so much talent on the injury report before the playoffs.

1 comment:

  1. While the Denver Broncos led by Peyton Manning may be a formidable foe for all AFC playoff rivals, you make a great point calling the Cincinnati Bengals maybe the most complete team in the post season. Indeed, the Cincinnati Bengals will NOT go as Dalton goes, but rather as a TEAM. Frankly, as a Cincinnatian watching Dalton and the Bengals, it is clear to this NFL football fan, Andy Dalton does not have an "elite" QB arm - he can't, and does not make the critical tight throws. So, thankfully, as a Bengal fan, the good news is this TEAM will go as far as the TEAM takes them, not Dalton. Defense will be key, but the NFL is no longer a league where D wins championships. Look at most recent Super Bowl scores. Lots of O, little D. Bengals know how to defeat Manning, so, assuming they get there, we'll see!

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